Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge
It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.